Al-Ettifaq 1–3 Al-Ittihad FC: Result & Stats

Al-Ettifaq

FT

1 – 3

HT: 1 – 2

Al-Ittihad FC

5/14/2026

Pro League · Round 33Abdullah Al Dabil Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 126+ matches

Al-Ettifaq32%

×Draw25%

Al-Ittihad FC43%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Al-EttifaqExpected goals in this matchAl-Ittihad FC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.32

1.55

Al-Ettifaq

1.32

Al-Ittihad FC

1.55

Al-Ittihad FC creates 17% more chances

Season form · 126 home / 126 away

1.40

creates per match

1.72

1.39

allows per match

1.25

creates per match

Al-Ettifaq

1.40

Al-Ittihad FC

1.72

allows per match

Al-Ettifaq

1.39

Al-Ittihad FC

1.25

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Al-Ettifaq+0.00on par

Al-Ittihad FC+0.00on par

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al-Ettifaq ↓

Al-Ittihad FC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–19%

0–27%

0–34%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–112%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–23%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

55%45%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Al-Ettifaq or draw

57%

Al-Ettifaq or Al-Ittihad FC

75%

Draw or Al-Ittihad FC

68%

Winning margin

Al-Ettifaq wins by 2+

14%

Al-Ittihad FC wins by 2+

21%

Team goals

Al-Ettifaq 1+ goals

73%

Al-Ettifaq 2+ goals

38%

Al-Ettifaq 3+ goals

15%

Al-Ittihad FC 1+ goals

79%

Al-Ittihad FC 2+ goals

46%

Al-Ittihad FC 3+ goals

20%

Draw no bet

Al-Ettifaq (draw refunded)

43%

Al-Ittihad FC (draw refunded)

57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al-Ettifaq at home — creates 1.40, concedes 1.39 · 126 matches

Al-Ittihad FC away — creates 1.72, concedes 1.25 · 126 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al-Ettifaq attack 1.40 + Al-Ittihad FC defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.32

Al-Ittihad FC attack 1.72 + Al-Ettifaq defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.55

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Al-Ettifaq scores more

32%

level

25%

Al-Ittihad FC scores more

43%

Al-Ittihad FC at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Al-Ittihad FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff