Al-Duhail SC 4–1 Shabab Al Ahli Dubai

Al-Duhail SC

FT

4 – 1

HT: 2 – 1

Shabab Al Ahli Dubai

11/3/2025

AFC Champions League · League Phase West - 4Abdullah bin Khalifa Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Al-Duhail SC50%

×Draw22%

Shabab Al Ahli Dubai27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Al-Duhail SCExpected goals in this matchShabab Al Ahli Dubai

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.90

1.35

Al-Duhail SC

1.90

Shabab Al Ahli Dubai

1.35

Al-Duhail SC creates 41% more chances

Season form · 28 home / 17 away

2.14

creates per match

1.24

1.46

allows per match

1.65

creates per match

Al-Duhail SC

2.14

Shabab Al Ahli Dubai

1.24

allows per match

Al-Duhail SC

1.46

Shabab Al Ahli Dubai

1.65

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Al-Duhail SC+0.00on par

Shabab Al Ahli Dubai+0.00on par

Total goals

Over63
Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes63
No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al-Duhail SC ↓

Shabab Al Ahli Dubai →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–110%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

63%37%3.5

41%59%4.5

23%77%

Double chance

Al-Duhail SC or draw

73%

Al-Duhail SC or Shabab Al Ahli Dubai

78%

Draw or Shabab Al Ahli Dubai

50%

Winning margin

Al-Duhail SC wins by 2+

28%

Shabab Al Ahli Dubai wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Al-Duhail SC 1+ goals

85%

Al-Duhail SC 2+ goals

56%

Al-Duhail SC 3+ goals

29%

Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 1+ goals

74%

Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 2+ goals

39%

Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Al-Duhail SC (draw refunded)

65%

Shabab Al Ahli Dubai (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

53%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al-Duhail SC at home — creates 2.14, concedes 1.46 · 28 matches

Shabab Al Ahli Dubai away — creates 1.24, concedes 1.65 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al-Duhail SC attack 2.14 + Shabab Al Ahli Dubai defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.90

Shabab Al Ahli Dubai attack 1.24 + Al-Duhail SC defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Al-Duhail SC scores more

50%

level

22%

Shabab Al Ahli Dubai scores more

27%

Al-Duhail SC at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Al-Duhail SC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff