Al-Duhail SC 5–2 Sepahan FC: Result & Stats

Al-Duhail SC

FT

5 – 2

HT: 3 – 1

Sepahan FC

Edmilson Junior 90', 41'

F. Sassi 50'

M. Olunga 35', 10'

S. Rafiei 82'

M. Nejadmahdi 20'

4/26/2022

AFC Champions League · Group Stage - 6King Abdullah Sport City Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Al-Duhail SC52%

×Draw21%

Sepahan FC27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Al-Duhail SCExpected goals in this matchSepahan FC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.21

1.55

Al-Duhail SC

2.21

Sepahan FC

1.55

Al-Duhail SC creates 43% more chances

Season form · 28 home / 11 away

2.14

creates per match

1.64

1.46

allows per match

2.27

creates per match

Al-Duhail SC

2.14

Sepahan FC

1.64

allows per match

Al-Duhail SC

1.46

Sepahan FC

2.27

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Al-Duhail SC+0.00on par

Sepahan FC+0.00on par

Total goals

Over72
Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes70
No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al-Duhail SC ↓

Sepahan FC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–14%

0–23%

0–31%

0–41%

1

1–05%

1–18%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–34%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–17%

3–25%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–14%

4–23%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

89%11%2.5

72%28%3.5

51%49%4.5

32%68%

Double chance

Al-Duhail SC or draw

73%

Al-Duhail SC or Sepahan FC

79%

Draw or Sepahan FC

48%

Winning margin

Al-Duhail SC wins by 2+

32%

Sepahan FC wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Al-Duhail SC 1+ goals

89%

Al-Duhail SC 2+ goals

65%

Al-Duhail SC 3+ goals

38%

Sepahan FC 1+ goals

79%

Sepahan FC 2+ goals

46%

Sepahan FC 3+ goals

20%

Draw no bet

Al-Duhail SC (draw refunded)

66%

Sepahan FC (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

62%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al-Duhail SC at home — creates 2.14, concedes 1.46 · 28 matches

Sepahan FC away — creates 1.64, concedes 2.27 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al-Duhail SC attack 2.14 + Sepahan FC defence 2.27 → ÷2 → 2.21

Sepahan FC attack 1.64 + Al-Duhail SC defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.55

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Al-Duhail SC scores more

52%

level

21%

Sepahan FC scores more

27%

Al-Duhail SC at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Al-Duhail SC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10

Edmilson Junior

Al-Duhail SC · M

9.2

Match Events

10'

M. Olunga↳ Nam Tae-Hee

12'

Assim Madibo

17'

Mohamed Musa

20'

M. Nejadmahdi↳ D. Esmaeilifar

35'

M. Olunga↳ Assim Madibo

41'

Edmilson Junior↳ Ali Hassan Afif

50'

F. Sassi↳ Edmilson Junior

57'

Karim Boudiaf← Assim Madibo

64'

Y. Salmani← M. Rigi

64'

R. Mirzaei← M. Hosseini

68'

Luiz Ceará← Mohammed Al Naimi

72'

A. Mohkamkar← M. Jahani

81'

Abdulrahman Fahmi Moustafa← Nam Tae-Hee

81'

Mubarak Shanan Hamza← Mohammed Alaa Eldin

82'

S. Rafiei

84'

Amirmohammad Mohkamkar

90'

Edmilson Junior↳ M. Olunga

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Al-DuhailSepahan

Overview

47%Possession53%

13Total Shots24

3Corners11

13Fouls9

Shots

13Total Shots24

7On Target7

5Off Target11

1Blocked6

11Inside Box13

2Outside Box11

Passing

47%Possession53%

351Total Passes380

280Accurate Passes318

80%Pass Accuracy84%

Goalkeeping

4Saves2

Discipline

13Fouls9

2Yellow Cards1

2Offsides5