Al-Duhail SC 3–2 Pakhtakor: Result & Stats

Al-Duhail SC

FT

3 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Pakhtakor

4/14/2022

AFC Champions League · Group Stage - 3King Abdullah Sport City Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

Al-Duhail SC53%

×Draw23%

Pakhtakor23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Al-Duhail SCExpected goals in this matchPakhtakor

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.78

1.09

Al-Duhail SC

1.78

Pakhtakor

1.09

Al-Duhail SC creates 63% more chances

Season form · 29 home / 23 away

2.21

creates per match

0.78

1.41

allows per match

1.35

creates per match

Al-Duhail SC

2.21

Pakhtakor

0.78

allows per match

Al-Duhail SC

1.41

Pakhtakor

1.35

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Al-Duhail SC+0.00on par

Pakhtakor+0.00on par

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al-Duhail SC ↓

Pakhtakor →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

55%45%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Al-Duhail SC or draw

77%

Al-Duhail SC or Pakhtakor

77%

Draw or Pakhtakor

47%

Winning margin

Al-Duhail SC wins by 2+

30%

Pakhtakor wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Al-Duhail SC 1+ goals

83%

Al-Duhail SC 2+ goals

53%

Al-Duhail SC 3+ goals

26%

Pakhtakor 1+ goals

66%

Pakhtakor 2+ goals

30%

Pakhtakor 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Al-Duhail SC (draw refunded)

70%

Pakhtakor (draw refunded)

30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al-Duhail SC at home — creates 2.21, concedes 1.41 · 29 matches

Pakhtakor away — creates 0.78, concedes 1.35 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al-Duhail SC attack 2.21 + Pakhtakor defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.78

Pakhtakor attack 0.78 + Al-Duhail SC defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Al-Duhail SC scores more

53%

level

23%

Pakhtakor scores more

23%

Al-Duhail SC at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Al-Duhail SC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff