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Al-Duhail SC vs Lokomotiv — AFC Champions League 2018

Al-Duhail SC
Al-Duhail SC
FT
3 – 2
HT: 3 – 0
Lokomotiv
Lokomotiv
Y. Msakni 25'
Y. El-Arabi 19', 9'
M. Bikmaev 59'
Nivaldo 57'
3/6/2018AFC Champions LeagueAFC Champions League · Group Stage - 3Abdullah bin Khalifa Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Al-Duhail SC53%
×Draw20%
Lokomotiv26%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.5%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 577,134 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.8% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Al-Duhail SC
2.23
Lokomotiv
1.53

Al-Duhail SC creates 46% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 6 away

creates per match

Al-Duhail SC
2.13
Lokomotiv
1.67

allows per match

Al-Duhail SC
1.40
Lokomotiv
2.33

finishing

Al-Duhail SC+0.00on par
Lokomotiv+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Over
  • Over72
  • Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

70%Yes
  • Yes70
  • No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al-Duhail SC ↓

Lokomotiv →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–23%
0–31%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–18%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–17%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–14%
4–23%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
72%28%3.5
51%49%4.5
32%68%

Double chance

Al-Duhail SC or draw
74%
Al-Duhail SC or Lokomotiv
80%
Draw or Lokomotiv
47%

Winning margin

Al-Duhail SC wins by 2+
32%
Lokomotiv wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Al-Duhail SC 1+ goals
89%
Al-Duhail SC 2+ goals
65%
Al-Duhail SC 3+ goals
38%
Lokomotiv 1+ goals
78%
Lokomotiv 2+ goals
45%
Lokomotiv 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Al-Duhail SC (draw refunded)
67%
Lokomotiv (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
62%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al-Duhail SC at home — creates 2.13, concedes 1.40 · 30 matches

Lokomotiv away — creates 1.67, concedes 2.33 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al-Duhail SC attack 2.13 + Lokomotiv defence 2.33 → ÷2 → 2.23

Lokomotiv attack 1.67 + Al-Duhail SC defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.53

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Al-Duhail SC scores more
53%
level
20%
Lokomotiv scores more
26%

Al-Duhail SC at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Al-Duhail SC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

9
Y. El-ArabiAl-Duhail SCAl-Duhail SC · F
8.9

Match Events

9'
Y. El-Arabi↳ Almoez Ali
19'
Y. El-Arabi↳ Almoez Ali
25'
Y. Msakni↳ Y. El-Arabi
41'
Marat Bikmaev
56'
Luiz Junior
56'
Nivaldo← S. Mirzayev
57'
D. Turopov← S. Abdullaev
57'
Nivaldo↳ I. Alibaev
59'
M. Bikmaev↳ I. Alibaev
69'
Ismaeel Mohammad← Almoez Ali
72'
Bassam Hisham← Karim Boudiaf
81'
H. Gafurov← S. Rashidov
90'
Diyorjon Turapov

Possession

51%Al-Duhail

Shots

18Al-Duhail

Pass accuracy

49%Al-Duhail

Statistics

Al-DuhailLokomotiv
Overview
51%Possession49%
18Total Shots12
4Corners7
13Fouls15
Shots
18Total Shots12
6On Target4
9Off Target6
3Blocked2
12Inside Box4
6Outside Box8
Passing
51%Possession49%
526Total Passes483
432Accurate Passes409
82%Pass Accuracy85%
Goalkeeping
2Saves3
Discipline
13Fouls15
1Yellow Cards2
0Red Cards0
1Offsides2

Match Recap: Al-Duhail SC vs Lokomotiv

Al-Duhail SC beat Lokomotiv 3-2 in AFC Champions League on March 6, 2018.

Goals: Y. El-Arabi (9', 19'), Y. Msakni (25'), Nivaldo (57'), M. Bikmaev (59').

Al-Duhail SC controlled possession (51%) and registered 18 shots to 12.

The match was played at Abdullah bin Khalifa Stadium in Doha.