Al-Duhail SC 2–0 Istiqlol: Result & Stats

Al-Duhail SC

FT

2 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Istiqlol

M. Olunga 89', 47'

11/27/2023

AFC Champions League · Group E - 5Abdullah bin Nasser bin Khalifa Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Al-Duhail SC57%

×Draw22%

Istiqlol21%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Al-Duhail SCExpected goals in this matchIstiqlol

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.98

1.12

Al-Duhail SC

1.98

Istiqlol

1.12

Al-Duhail SC creates 77% more chances

Season form · 29 home / 12 away

2.21

creates per match

0.83

1.41

allows per match

1.75

creates per match

Al-Duhail SC

2.21

Istiqlol

0.83

allows per match

Al-Duhail SC

1.41

Istiqlol

1.75

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Al-Duhail SC+0.00on par

Istiqlol+0.00on par

Total goals

Over60
Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al-Duhail SC ↓

Istiqlol →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–110%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–17%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

60%40%3.5

37%63%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

Al-Duhail SC or draw

79%

Al-Duhail SC or Istiqlol

78%

Draw or Istiqlol

43%

Winning margin

Al-Duhail SC wins by 2+

34%

Istiqlol wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Al-Duhail SC 1+ goals

86%

Al-Duhail SC 2+ goals

59%

Al-Duhail SC 3+ goals

31%

Istiqlol 1+ goals

67%

Istiqlol 2+ goals

31%

Istiqlol 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Al-Duhail SC (draw refunded)

73%

Istiqlol (draw refunded)

27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

48%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al-Duhail SC at home — creates 2.21, concedes 1.41 · 29 matches

Istiqlol away — creates 0.83, concedes 1.75 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al-Duhail SC attack 2.21 + Istiqlol defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.98

Istiqlol attack 0.83 + Al-Duhail SC defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.12

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Al-Duhail SC scores more

57%

level

22%

Istiqlol scores more

21%

Al-Duhail SC at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Al-Duhail SC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

14

M. Olunga

Al-Duhail SC · F

9.3

Match Events

-5'

Alijon Karomatullozoda

9'

Assim Madibo

22'

Senin Sebai

33'

Michael OlungaPenalty cancelled

46'

S. Mabatshoev← S. Sebai

47'

M. Olunga

48'

Michael OlungaGoal confirmed

74'

Ismaeel Mohammad← I. Lihadji

74'

Lotfi Madjer← Mohammed Muntari

82'

Romish DzhalilovPenalty cancelled

84'

Mohammed Musa← Sultan Al Braik

86'

S. Suleymanov← C. Gogoua

86'

T. Islomov← A. Nazarov

89'

M. Olunga↳ Ismaeel Mohammad

90+5'

Fares Said

90+3'

Rúben Semedo

90+3'

Rúben SemedoCard upgrade

90+5'

Fares Amer← Almoez Ali

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Al-DuhailIstiqlol

Overview

63%Possession37%

13Total Shots9

4Corners8

11Fouls7

Shots

13Total Shots9

2On Target1

8Off Target6

3Blocked2

6Inside Box5

7Outside Box4

Passing

63%Possession37%

576Total Passes331

506Accurate Passes261

88%Pass Accuracy79%

Goalkeeping

1Saves0

Discipline

11Fouls7

2Yellow Cards2

1Red Cards0

2Offsides3