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Al-Duhail SC vs Al Shamal — League #305 2026

Al-Duhail SC
Al-Duhail SC
FT
2 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Al Shamal
Al Shamal
10/25/2025League #305League #305 · Round 8Abdullah bin Khalifa Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Al-Duhail SC35%
×Draw23%
Al Shamal43%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Al-Duhail SC
1.58
Al Shamal
1.77

Al Shamal creates 12% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 19 away

creates per match

Al-Duhail SC
2.00
Al Shamal
1.53

allows per match

Al-Duhail SC
2.00
Al Shamal
1.16

finishing

Al-Duhail SC+0.00on par
Al Shamal+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al-Duhail SC ↓

Al Shamal →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
43%57%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Al-Duhail SC or draw
57%
Al-Duhail SC or Al Shamal
77%
Draw or Al Shamal
65%

Winning margin

Al-Duhail SC wins by 2+
17%
Al Shamal wins by 2+
22%

Team goals

Al-Duhail SC 1+ goals
79%
Al-Duhail SC 2+ goals
47%
Al-Duhail SC 3+ goals
21%
Al Shamal 1+ goals
83%
Al Shamal 2+ goals
53%
Al Shamal 3+ goals
26%

Draw no bet

Al-Duhail SC (draw refunded)
45%
Al Shamal (draw refunded)
55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al-Duhail SC at home — creates 2.00, concedes 2.00 · 3 matches

Al Shamal away — creates 1.53, concedes 1.16 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al-Duhail SC attack 2.00 + Al Shamal defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.58

Al Shamal attack 1.53 + Al-Duhail SC defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Al-Duhail SC scores more
35%
level
23%
Al Shamal scores more
43%

Al Shamal at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Al Shamal will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League #305: Al-Duhail SC 2–0 Al Shamal

Al-Duhail SC beat Al Shamal 2-0 in League #305 on October 25, 2025.

The match was played at Abdullah bin Khalifa Stadium in Doha.