Al-Duhail SC 1–1 Al Sadd: Result & Stats

Al-Duhail SC

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Al Sadd

8/6/2019

AFC Champions League · 8th FinalsAl Janoub Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 29+ matches

Al-Duhail SC51%

×Draw22%

Al Sadd27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Al-Duhail SCExpected goals in this matchAl Sadd

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.92

1.33

Al-Duhail SC

1.92

Al Sadd

1.33

Al-Duhail SC creates 44% more chances

Season form · 29 home / 34 away

2.21

creates per match

1.26

1.41

allows per match

1.62

creates per match

Al-Duhail SC

2.21

Al Sadd

1.26

allows per match

Al-Duhail SC

1.41

Al Sadd

1.62

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Al-Duhail SC+0.00on par

Al Sadd+0.00on par

Total goals

Over63
Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes63
No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al-Duhail SC ↓

Al Sadd →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–23%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–110%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–110%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

63%37%3.5

41%59%4.5

23%77%

Double chance

Al-Duhail SC or draw

73%

Al-Duhail SC or Al Sadd

78%

Draw or Al Sadd

49%

Winning margin

Al-Duhail SC wins by 2+

29%

Al Sadd wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Al-Duhail SC 1+ goals

85%

Al-Duhail SC 2+ goals

57%

Al-Duhail SC 3+ goals

30%

Al Sadd 1+ goals

74%

Al Sadd 2+ goals

38%

Al Sadd 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Al-Duhail SC (draw refunded)

66%

Al Sadd (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

53%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al-Duhail SC at home — creates 2.21, concedes 1.41 · 29 matches

Al Sadd away — creates 1.26, concedes 1.62 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al-Duhail SC attack 2.21 + Al Sadd defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 1.92

Al Sadd attack 1.26 + Al-Duhail SC defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Al-Duhail SC scores more

51%

level

22%

Al Sadd scores more

27%

Al-Duhail SC at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Al-Duhail SC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff