Al-Duhail SC 0–0 Al-Rayyan SC: Result & Stats

Al-Duhail SC

Pens

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Al-Rayyan SC

2/19/2023

AFC Champions League · Round of 16Al Thumama Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Al-Duhail SC53%

×Draw22%

Al-Rayyan SC26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Al-Duhail SCExpected goals in this matchAl-Rayyan SC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.00

1.34

Al-Duhail SC

2.00

Al-Rayyan SC

1.34

Al-Duhail SC creates 49% more chances

Season form · 29 home / 18 away

2.21

creates per match

1.28

1.41

allows per match

1.78

creates per match

Al-Duhail SC

2.21

Al-Rayyan SC

1.28

allows per match

Al-Duhail SC

1.41

Al-Rayyan SC

1.78

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Al-Duhail SC+0.00on par

Al-Rayyan SC+0.00on par

Total goals

Over65
Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes64
No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al-Duhail SC ↓

Al-Rayyan SC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–07%

1–110%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–110%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

85%15%2.5

65%35%3.5

43%57%4.5

24%76%

Double chance

Al-Duhail SC or draw

74%

Al-Duhail SC or Al-Rayyan SC

78%

Draw or Al-Rayyan SC

47%

Winning margin

Al-Duhail SC wins by 2+

31%

Al-Rayyan SC wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Al-Duhail SC 1+ goals

86%

Al-Duhail SC 2+ goals

59%

Al-Duhail SC 3+ goals

32%

Al-Rayyan SC 1+ goals

74%

Al-Rayyan SC 2+ goals

39%

Al-Rayyan SC 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Al-Duhail SC (draw refunded)

67%

Al-Rayyan SC (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

54%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al-Duhail SC at home — creates 2.21, concedes 1.41 · 29 matches

Al-Rayyan SC away — creates 1.28, concedes 1.78 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al-Duhail SC attack 2.21 + Al-Rayyan SC defence 1.78 → ÷2 → 2.00

Al-Rayyan SC attack 1.28 + Al-Duhail SC defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.34

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Al-Duhail SC scores more

53%

level

22%

Al-Rayyan SC scores more

26%

Al-Duhail SC at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Al-Duhail SC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff