Al-Duhail SC 4–2 Al-Ittihad FC: Result & Stats

Al-Duhail SC

FT

4 – 2

HT: 2 – 0

Al-Ittihad FC

11/24/2025

AFC Champions League · League Phase West - 5Abdullah bin Khalifa Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Al-Duhail SC48%

×Draw22%

Al-Ittihad FC30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Al-Duhail SCExpected goals in this matchAl-Ittihad FC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.97

1.52

Al-Duhail SC

1.97

Al-Ittihad FC

1.52

Al-Duhail SC creates 30% more chances

Season form · 28 home / 14 away

2.14

creates per match

1.57

1.46

allows per match

1.79

creates per match

Al-Duhail SC

2.14

Al-Ittihad FC

1.57

allows per match

Al-Duhail SC

1.46

Al-Ittihad FC

1.79

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Al-Duhail SC+0.00on par

Al-Ittihad FC+0.00on par

Total goals

Over68
Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes67
No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al-Duhail SC ↓

Al-Ittihad FC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–15%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–19%

1–27%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

86%14%2.5

68%32%3.5

46%54%4.5

27%73%

Double chance

Al-Duhail SC or draw

70%

Al-Duhail SC or Al-Ittihad FC

78%

Draw or Al-Ittihad FC

52%

Winning margin

Al-Duhail SC wins by 2+

27%

Al-Ittihad FC wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Al-Duhail SC 1+ goals

86%

Al-Duhail SC 2+ goals

58%

Al-Duhail SC 3+ goals

31%

Al-Ittihad FC 1+ goals

78%

Al-Ittihad FC 2+ goals

45%

Al-Ittihad FC 3+ goals

20%

Draw no bet

Al-Duhail SC (draw refunded)

62%

Al-Ittihad FC (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

58%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al-Duhail SC at home — creates 2.14, concedes 1.46 · 28 matches

Al-Ittihad FC away — creates 1.57, concedes 1.79 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al-Duhail SC attack 2.14 + Al-Ittihad FC defence 1.79 → ÷2 → 1.97

Al-Ittihad FC attack 1.57 + Al-Duhail SC defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.52

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Al-Duhail SC scores more

48%

level

22%

Al-Ittihad FC scores more

30%

Al-Duhail SC at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Al-Duhail SC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff