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Al Draih vs Arar — Division 1 2018

Al Draih
Al Draih
FT
1 – 0
Arar
Arar
11/10/2020Division 1Division 1 · Round 4Prince Turki bin Abdul Aziz Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Al Draih47%
×Draw28%
Arar25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Al Draih
1.34
Arar
0.91

Al Draih creates 47% more chances

Season form · 38 home / 19 away

creates per match

Al Draih
0.95
Arar
0.47

allows per match

Al Draih
1.34
Arar
1.74

finishing

Al Draih+0.00on par
Arar+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al Draih ↓

Arar →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–110%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
66%34%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Al Draih or draw
75%
Al Draih or Arar
72%
Draw or Arar
53%

Winning margin

Al Draih wins by 2+
22%
Arar wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Al Draih 1+ goals
74%
Al Draih 2+ goals
39%
Al Draih 3+ goals
15%
Arar 1+ goals
60%
Arar 2+ goals
23%
Arar 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Al Draih (draw refunded)
65%
Arar (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al Draih at home — creates 0.95, concedes 1.34 · 38 matches

Arar away — creates 0.47, concedes 1.74 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al Draih attack 0.95 + Arar defence 1.74 → ÷2 → 1.34

Arar attack 0.47 + Al Draih defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 0.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Al Draih scores more
47%
level
28%
Arar scores more
25%

Al Draih at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Al Draih will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Al Draih 1 – 0 Arar

Al Draih beat Arar 1-0 in Division 1 on November 10, 2020.

The match was played at Prince Turki bin Abdul Aziz Stadium in Riyadh.