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Al Draih vs Al Shoalah — Division 1 2018

Al Draih
Al Draih
FT
0 – 1
Al Shoalah
Al Shoalah
4/7/2021Division 1Division 1 · Round 30Prince Faisal bin Fahd Fahd Training Pitch

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Al Draih33%
×Draw30%
Al Shoalah37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Al Draih
1.02
Al Shoalah
1.11

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 38 home / 76 away

creates per match

Al Draih
0.95
Al Shoalah
0.88

allows per match

Al Draih
1.34
Al Shoalah
1.08

finishing

Al Draih+0.00on par
Al Shoalah+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al Draih ↓

Al Shoalah →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–113%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
17%83%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Al Draih or draw
63%
Al Draih or Al Shoalah
70%
Draw or Al Shoalah
67%

Winning margin

Al Draih wins by 2+
12%
Al Shoalah wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Al Draih 1+ goals
64%
Al Draih 2+ goals
27%
Al Draih 3+ goals
8%
Al Shoalah 1+ goals
67%
Al Shoalah 2+ goals
30%
Al Shoalah 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Al Draih (draw refunded)
47%
Al Shoalah (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al Draih at home — creates 0.95, concedes 1.34 · 38 matches

Al Shoalah away — creates 0.88, concedes 1.08 · 76 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al Draih attack 0.95 + Al Shoalah defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.02

Al Shoalah attack 0.88 + Al Draih defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Al Draih scores more
33%
level
30%
Al Shoalah scores more
37%

Al Shoalah at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Al Shoalah will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Division 1: Al Draih 0–1 Al Shoalah

Al Shoalah beat Al Draih 1-0 in Division 1 on April 7, 2021.

The match was played at Prince Faisal bin Fahd Fahd Training Pitch in Riyadh.