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Al Draih vs Al-Qadisiyah FC — Division 1 2018

Al Draih
Al Draih
FT
0 – 2
Al-Qadisiyah FC
Al-Qadisiyah FC
9/28/2021Division 1Division 1 · Round 4Prince Turki bin Abdul Aziz Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Al Draih27%
×Draw28%
Al-Qadisiyah FC45%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Al Draih
0.94
Al-Qadisiyah FC
1.29

Al-Qadisiyah FC creates 37% more chances

Season form · 38 home / 72 away

creates per match

Al Draih
0.95
Al-Qadisiyah FC
1.24

allows per match

Al Draih
1.34
Al-Qadisiyah FC
0.92

finishing

Al Draih+0.00on par
Al-Qadisiyah FC+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al Draih ↓

Al-Qadisiyah FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–114%
0–29%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–16%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Al Draih or draw
55%
Al Draih or Al-Qadisiyah FC
72%
Draw or Al-Qadisiyah FC
73%

Winning margin

Al Draih wins by 2+
10%
Al-Qadisiyah FC wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Al Draih 1+ goals
61%
Al Draih 2+ goals
24%
Al Draih 3+ goals
7%
Al-Qadisiyah FC 1+ goals
72%
Al-Qadisiyah FC 2+ goals
37%
Al-Qadisiyah FC 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Al Draih (draw refunded)
38%
Al-Qadisiyah FC (draw refunded)
62%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al Draih at home — creates 0.95, concedes 1.34 · 38 matches

Al-Qadisiyah FC away — creates 1.24, concedes 0.92 · 72 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al Draih attack 0.95 + Al-Qadisiyah FC defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 0.94

Al-Qadisiyah FC attack 1.24 + Al Draih defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Al Draih scores more
27%
level
28%
Al-Qadisiyah FC scores more
45%

Al-Qadisiyah FC at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Al-Qadisiyah FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Al Draih vs Al-Qadisiyah FC

Al-Qadisiyah FC beat Al Draih 2-0 in Division 1 on September 28, 2021.

The match was played at Prince Turki bin Abdul Aziz Stadium in Riyadh.