Al Draih 0–1 Al Jabalain: Result & Stats

Al Draih

FT

0 – 1

Al Jabalain

12/8/2020

Division 1 · Round 9Prince Turki bin Abdul Aziz Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Al Draih30%

×Draw28%

Al Jabalain41%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Al DraihExpected goals in this matchAl Jabalain

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.03

1.25

Al Draih

1.03

Al Jabalain

1.25

Al Jabalain creates 21% more chances

Season form · 38 home / 128 away

0.95

creates per match

1.17

1.34

allows per match

1.11

creates per match

Al Draih

0.95

Al Jabalain

1.17

allows per match

Al Draih

1.34

Al Jabalain

1.11

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Al Draih+0.00on par

Al Jabalain+0.00on par

Total goals

Under60
Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al Draih ↓

Al Jabalain →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–113%

0–28%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–17%

2–24%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–21%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

66%34%2.5

40%60%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Al Draih or draw

59%

Al Draih or Al Jabalain

72%

Draw or Al Jabalain

70%

Winning margin

Al Draih wins by 2+

11%

Al Jabalain wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

Al Draih 1+ goals

64%

Al Draih 2+ goals

28%

Al Draih 3+ goals

9%

Al Jabalain 1+ goals

71%

Al Jabalain 2+ goals

36%

Al Jabalain 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Al Draih (draw refunded)

42%

Al Jabalain (draw refunded)

58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al Draih at home — creates 0.95, concedes 1.34 · 38 matches

Al Jabalain away — creates 1.17, concedes 1.11 · 128 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al Draih attack 0.95 + Al Jabalain defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.03

Al Jabalain attack 1.17 + Al Draih defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Al Draih scores more

30%

level

28%

Al Jabalain scores more

41%

Al Jabalain at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Al Jabalain will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff