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Al Draih vs Al Bukayriyah — Division 1 2018

Al Draih
Al Draih
FT
1 – 2
Al Bukayriyah
Al Bukayriyah
2/21/2021Division 1Division 1 · Round 22Prince Turki bin Abdul Aziz Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Al Draih34%
×Draw28%
Al Bukayriyah38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Al Draih
1.10
Al Bukayriyah
1.19

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 38 home / 89 away

creates per match

Al Draih
0.95
Al Bukayriyah
1.03

allows per match

Al Draih
1.34
Al Bukayriyah
1.26

finishing

Al Draih+0.00on par
Al Bukayriyah+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al Draih ↓

Al Bukayriyah →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–112%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Al Draih or draw
62%
Al Draih or Al Bukayriyah
72%
Draw or Al Bukayriyah
66%

Winning margin

Al Draih wins by 2+
13%
Al Bukayriyah wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Al Draih 1+ goals
67%
Al Draih 2+ goals
30%
Al Draih 3+ goals
10%
Al Bukayriyah 1+ goals
70%
Al Bukayriyah 2+ goals
33%
Al Bukayriyah 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Al Draih (draw refunded)
47%
Al Bukayriyah (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al Draih at home — creates 0.95, concedes 1.34 · 38 matches

Al Bukayriyah away — creates 1.03, concedes 1.26 · 89 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al Draih attack 0.95 + Al Bukayriyah defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.10

Al Bukayriyah attack 1.03 + Al Draih defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Al Draih scores more
34%
level
28%
Al Bukayriyah scores more
38%

Al Bukayriyah at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Al Bukayriyah will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Al Draih vs Al Bukayriyah

Al Bukayriyah beat Al Draih 2-1 in Division 1 on February 21, 2021.

The match was played at Prince Turki bin Abdul Aziz Stadium in Riyadh.