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Al Diwaniya vs Naft — Iraqi League 2020

Al Diwaniya
Al Diwaniya
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Naft
Naft
7/20/2023Iraqi LeagueIraqi League · Round 38Karbala Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 52+ matches

Al Diwaniya28%
×Draw32%
Naft41%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Al Diwaniya
0.83
Naft
1.07

Naft creates 29% more chances

Season form · 52 home / 113 away

creates per match

Al Diwaniya
0.71
Naft
0.84

allows per match

Al Diwaniya
1.31
Naft
0.96

finishing

Al Diwaniya+0.00on par
Naft+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Under
  • Under70
  • Over30

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

63%No
  • No63
  • Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al Diwaniya ↓

Naft →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–015%
0–116%
0–29%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–16%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
85%15%1.5
57%43%2.5
30%70%3.5
13%87%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Al Diwaniya or draw
59%
Al Diwaniya or Naft
68%
Draw or Naft
72%

Winning margin

Al Diwaniya wins by 2+
9%
Naft wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Al Diwaniya 1+ goals
56%
Al Diwaniya 2+ goals
20%
Al Diwaniya 3+ goals
5%
Naft 1+ goals
66%
Naft 2+ goals
29%
Naft 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Al Diwaniya (draw refunded)
41%
Naft (draw refunded)
59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
24%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al Diwaniya at home — creates 0.71, concedes 1.31 · 52 matches

Naft away — creates 0.84, concedes 0.96 · 113 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al Diwaniya attack 0.71 + Naft defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 0.83

Naft attack 0.84 + Al Diwaniya defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Al Diwaniya scores more
28%
level
32%
Naft scores more
41%

Naft at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Naft will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Al Diwaniya vs Naft

Naft beat Al Diwaniya 1-0 in Iraqi League on July 20, 2023.

The match was played at Karbala Stadium in Karbala.