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Al Diwaniya vs Al Talaba — Iraqi League 2020

Al Diwaniya
Al Diwaniya
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Al Talaba
Al Talaba
9/30/2021Iraqi LeagueIraqi League · Round 2Al Diwaniya Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 52+ matches

Al Diwaniya25%
×Draw29%
Al Talaba45%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Al Diwaniya
0.84
Al Talaba
1.23

Al Talaba creates 46% more chances

Season form · 52 home / 111 away

creates per match

Al Diwaniya
0.71
Al Talaba
1.14

allows per match

Al Diwaniya
1.31
Al Talaba
0.97

finishing

Al Diwaniya+0.00on par
Al Talaba+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Under
  • Under66
  • Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

60%No
  • No60
  • Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al Diwaniya ↓

Al Talaba →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–116%
0–210%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–04%
2–15%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
61%39%2.5
34%66%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Al Diwaniya or draw
55%
Al Diwaniya or Al Talaba
71%
Draw or Al Talaba
75%

Winning margin

Al Diwaniya wins by 2+
8%
Al Talaba wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Al Diwaniya 1+ goals
57%
Al Diwaniya 2+ goals
21%
Al Diwaniya 3+ goals
5%
Al Talaba 1+ goals
71%
Al Talaba 2+ goals
35%
Al Talaba 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Al Diwaniya (draw refunded)
36%
Al Talaba (draw refunded)
64%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al Diwaniya at home — creates 0.71, concedes 1.31 · 52 matches

Al Talaba away — creates 1.14, concedes 0.97 · 111 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al Diwaniya attack 0.71 + Al Talaba defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 0.84

Al Talaba attack 1.14 + Al Diwaniya defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Al Diwaniya scores more
25%
level
29%
Al Talaba scores more
45%

Al Talaba at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Al Talaba will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Al Diwaniya vs Al Talaba

Al Diwaniya and Al Talaba drew 1-1 in Iraqi League on September 30, 2021.

The match was played at Al Diwaniya Stadium in Al Diwaniyah.