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Al Diwaniya vs Al Karkh — Iraqi League 2020

Al Diwaniya
Al Diwaniya
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Al Karkh
Al Karkh
1/1/2022Iraqi LeagueIraqi League · Round 16Al Diwaniya Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 52+ matches

Al Diwaniya28%
×Draw30%
Al Karkh42%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Al Diwaniya
0.89
Al Karkh
1.17

Al Karkh creates 31% more chances

Season form · 52 home / 108 away

creates per match

Al Diwaniya
0.71
Al Karkh
1.02

allows per match

Al Diwaniya
1.31
Al Karkh
1.07

finishing

Al Diwaniya+0.00on par
Al Karkh+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Under
  • Under66
  • Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al Diwaniya ↓

Al Karkh →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–115%
0–29%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–16%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
61%39%2.5
34%66%3.5
15%85%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Al Diwaniya or draw
58%
Al Diwaniya or Al Karkh
70%
Draw or Al Karkh
72%

Winning margin

Al Diwaniya wins by 2+
9%
Al Karkh wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Al Diwaniya 1+ goals
59%
Al Diwaniya 2+ goals
22%
Al Diwaniya 3+ goals
6%
Al Karkh 1+ goals
69%
Al Karkh 2+ goals
33%
Al Karkh 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Al Diwaniya (draw refunded)
40%
Al Karkh (draw refunded)
60%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al Diwaniya at home — creates 0.71, concedes 1.31 · 52 matches

Al Karkh away — creates 1.02, concedes 1.07 · 108 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al Diwaniya attack 0.71 + Al Karkh defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 0.89

Al Karkh attack 1.02 + Al Diwaniya defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Al Diwaniya scores more
28%
level
30%
Al Karkh scores more
42%

Al Karkh at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Al Karkh will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Iraqi League: Al Diwaniya 0–1 Al Karkh

Al Karkh beat Al Diwaniya 1-0 in Iraqi League on January 1, 2022.

The match was played at Al Diwaniya Stadium in Al Diwaniyah.