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Al Diriyah vs Al-Faisaly FC — Division 1 2018

Al Diriyah
Al Diriyah
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Al-Faisaly FC
Al-Faisaly FC
11/23/2025Division 1Division 1 · Round 9Prince Turki bin Abdul Aziz Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Al Diriyah55%
×Draw22%
Al-Faisaly FC23%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Al Diriyah
1.95
Al-Faisaly FC
1.18

Al Diriyah creates 65% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 68 away

creates per match

Al Diriyah
2.72
Al-Faisaly FC
1.47

allows per match

Al Diriyah
0.89
Al-Faisaly FC
1.18

finishing

Al Diriyah+0.00on par
Al-Faisaly FC+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al Diriyah ↓

Al-Faisaly FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–110%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
60%40%3.5
38%62%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Al Diriyah or draw
77%
Al Diriyah or Al-Faisaly FC
78%
Draw or Al-Faisaly FC
45%

Winning margin

Al Diriyah wins by 2+
32%
Al-Faisaly FC wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Al Diriyah 1+ goals
86%
Al Diriyah 2+ goals
58%
Al Diriyah 3+ goals
31%
Al-Faisaly FC 1+ goals
69%
Al-Faisaly FC 2+ goals
33%
Al-Faisaly FC 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Al Diriyah (draw refunded)
71%
Al-Faisaly FC (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al Diriyah at home — creates 2.72, concedes 0.89 · 18 matches

Al-Faisaly FC away — creates 1.47, concedes 1.18 · 68 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al Diriyah attack 2.72 + Al-Faisaly FC defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.95

Al-Faisaly FC attack 1.47 + Al Diriyah defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Al Diriyah scores more
55%
level
22%
Al-Faisaly FC scores more
23%

Al Diriyah at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Al Diriyah will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Al Diriyah vs Al-Faisaly FC

Al Diriyah and Al-Faisaly FC drew 1-1 in Division 1 on November 23, 2025.

The match was played at Prince Turki bin Abdul Aziz Stadium in Riyadh.