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Al-Dhafra vs Al Thaid — Division 1 2018

Al-Dhafra
Al-Dhafra
FT
2 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Al Thaid
Al Thaid
11/23/2023Division 1Division 1 · Round 10Al Dhafra Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

Al-Dhafra53%
×Draw24%
Al Thaid23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Al-Dhafra
1.69
Al Thaid
1.04

Al-Dhafra creates 63% more chances

Season form · 31 home / 100 away

creates per match

Al-Dhafra
1.87
Al Thaid
1.10

allows per match

Al-Dhafra
0.97
Al Thaid
1.51

finishing

Al-Dhafra+0.00on par
Al Thaid+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al-Dhafra ↓

Al Thaid →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
76%24%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Al-Dhafra or draw
77%
Al-Dhafra or Al Thaid
76%
Draw or Al Thaid
47%

Winning margin

Al-Dhafra wins by 2+
28%
Al Thaid wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Al-Dhafra 1+ goals
82%
Al-Dhafra 2+ goals
50%
Al-Dhafra 3+ goals
24%
Al Thaid 1+ goals
65%
Al Thaid 2+ goals
28%
Al Thaid 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Al-Dhafra (draw refunded)
69%
Al Thaid (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al-Dhafra at home — creates 1.87, concedes 0.97 · 31 matches

Al Thaid away — creates 1.10, concedes 1.51 · 100 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al-Dhafra attack 1.87 + Al Thaid defence 1.51 → ÷2 → 1.69

Al Thaid attack 1.10 + Al-Dhafra defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Al-Dhafra scores more
53%
level
24%
Al Thaid scores more
23%

Al-Dhafra at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Al-Dhafra will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Al-Dhafra vs Al Thaid

Al-Dhafra and Al Thaid drew 2-2 in Division 1 on November 23, 2023.

The match was played at Al Dhafra Stadium in Madinat Zaid.