Al-Dhafra 3–2 Al Ramms: Result & Stats | Division 1

Al-Dhafra

FT

3 – 2

HT: 2 – 1

Al Ramms

11/5/2023

Division 1 · Round 8Al Dhafra Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

Al-Dhafra62%

×Draw21%

Al Ramms17%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Al-DhafraExpected goals in this matchAl Ramms

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.03

0.96

Al-Dhafra

2.03

Al Ramms

0.96

Al-Dhafra creates 111% more chances

Season form · 31 home / 43 away

1.87

creates per match

0.95

0.97

allows per match

2.19

creates per match

Al-Dhafra

1.87

Al Ramms

0.95

allows per match

Al-Dhafra

0.97

Al Ramms

2.19

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Al-Dhafra+0.00on par

Al Ramms+0.00on par

Total goals

Over57
Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al-Dhafra ↓

Al Ramms →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–15%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–110%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–17%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

57%43%3.5

35%65%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Al-Dhafra or draw

83%

Al-Dhafra or Al Ramms

79%

Draw or Al Ramms

38%

Winning margin

Al-Dhafra wins by 2+

38%

Al Ramms wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Al-Dhafra 1+ goals

87%

Al-Dhafra 2+ goals

60%

Al-Dhafra 3+ goals

33%

Al Ramms 1+ goals

62%

Al Ramms 2+ goals

25%

Al Ramms 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Al-Dhafra (draw refunded)

78%

Al Ramms (draw refunded)

22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al-Dhafra at home — creates 1.87, concedes 0.97 · 31 matches

Al Ramms away — creates 0.95, concedes 2.19 · 43 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al-Dhafra attack 1.87 + Al Ramms defence 2.19 → ÷2 → 2.03

Al Ramms attack 0.95 + Al-Dhafra defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Al-Dhafra scores more

62%

level

21%

Al Ramms scores more

17%

Al-Dhafra at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Al-Dhafra will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff