Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Al Dahra Tripoli FC vs Assabah SC — Premier League 2019

Al Dahra Tripoli FC
Al Dahra Tripoli FC
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Assabah SC
Assabah SC
12/25/2025Premier LeaguePremier League · Group A - 2

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Al Dahra Tripoli FC33%
×Draw28%
Assabah SC39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Al Dahra Tripoli FC
1.11
Assabah SC
1.23

Assabah SC creates 11% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 9 away

creates per match

Al Dahra Tripoli FC
1.44
Assabah SC
0.78

allows per match

Al Dahra Tripoli FC
1.67
Assabah SC
0.78

finishing

Al Dahra Tripoli FC+0.00on par
Assabah SC+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al Dahra Tripoli FC ↓

Assabah SC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–112%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
41%59%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Al Dahra Tripoli FC or draw
61%
Al Dahra Tripoli FC or Assabah SC
72%
Draw or Assabah SC
67%

Winning margin

Al Dahra Tripoli FC wins by 2+
13%
Assabah SC wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Al Dahra Tripoli FC 1+ goals
67%
Al Dahra Tripoli FC 2+ goals
30%
Al Dahra Tripoli FC 3+ goals
10%
Assabah SC 1+ goals
71%
Assabah SC 2+ goals
35%
Assabah SC 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Al Dahra Tripoli FC (draw refunded)
46%
Assabah SC (draw refunded)
54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al Dahra Tripoli FC at home — creates 1.44, concedes 1.67 · 9 matches

Assabah SC away — creates 0.78, concedes 0.78 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al Dahra Tripoli FC attack 1.44 + Assabah SC defence 0.78 → ÷2 → 1.11

Assabah SC attack 0.78 + Al Dahra Tripoli FC defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Al Dahra Tripoli FC scores more
33%
level
28%
Assabah SC scores more
39%

Assabah SC at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Assabah SC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier League: Al Dahra Tripoli FC 0–0 Assabah SC

Al Dahra Tripoli FC and Assabah SC drew 0-0 in Premier League on December 25, 2025.