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Al Dahra Tripoli FC vs Al Malaab El Libby — Premier League 2019

Al Dahra Tripoli FC
Al Dahra Tripoli FC
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Al Malaab El Libby
Al Malaab El Libby
4/23/2026Premier LeaguePremier League · Group A - 18

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Al Dahra Tripoli FC37%
×Draw27%
Al Malaab El Libby36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Al Dahra Tripoli FC
1.27
Al Malaab El Libby
1.26

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 9 home / 27 away

creates per match

Al Dahra Tripoli FC
1.44
Al Malaab El Libby
0.85

allows per match

Al Dahra Tripoli FC
1.67
Al Malaab El Libby
1.11

finishing

Al Dahra Tripoli FC+0.00on par
Al Malaab El Libby+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al Dahra Tripoli FC ↓

Al Malaab El Libby →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
46%54%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Al Dahra Tripoli FC or draw
64%
Al Dahra Tripoli FC or Al Malaab El Libby
73%
Draw or Al Malaab El Libby
63%

Winning margin

Al Dahra Tripoli FC wins by 2+
16%
Al Malaab El Libby wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Al Dahra Tripoli FC 1+ goals
72%
Al Dahra Tripoli FC 2+ goals
36%
Al Dahra Tripoli FC 3+ goals
14%
Al Malaab El Libby 1+ goals
72%
Al Malaab El Libby 2+ goals
36%
Al Malaab El Libby 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Al Dahra Tripoli FC (draw refunded)
50%
Al Malaab El Libby (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al Dahra Tripoli FC at home — creates 1.44, concedes 1.67 · 9 matches

Al Malaab El Libby away — creates 0.85, concedes 1.11 · 27 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al Dahra Tripoli FC attack 1.44 + Al Malaab El Libby defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.27

Al Malaab El Libby attack 0.85 + Al Dahra Tripoli FC defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.26

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Al Dahra Tripoli FC scores more
37%
level
27%
Al Malaab El Libby scores more
36%

Al Dahra Tripoli FC at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Al Dahra Tripoli FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Al Dahra Tripoli FC 1 – 2 Al Malaab El Libby

Al Malaab El Libby beat Al Dahra Tripoli FC 2-1 in Premier League on April 23, 2026.