Al Dahra Tripoli FC 3–1 Al-Khmes: Result & Stats

Al Dahra Tripoli FC

FT

3 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Al-Khmes

12/17/2025

Premier League · Group A - 1

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Al Dahra Tripoli FC42%

×Draw26%

Al-Khmes32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Al Dahra Tripoli FCExpected goals in this matchAl-Khmes

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.40

1.18

Al Dahra Tripoli FC

1.40

Al-Khmes

1.18

Al Dahra Tripoli FC creates 19% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 55 away

1.44

creates per match

0.69

1.67

allows per match

1.36

creates per match

Al Dahra Tripoli FC

1.44

Al-Khmes

0.69

allows per match

Al Dahra Tripoli FC

1.67

Al-Khmes

1.36

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Al Dahra Tripoli FC+0.00on par

Al-Khmes+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al Dahra Tripoli FC ↓

Al-Khmes →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Al Dahra Tripoli FC or draw

68%

Al Dahra Tripoli FC or Al-Khmes

74%

Draw or Al-Khmes

58%

Winning margin

Al Dahra Tripoli FC wins by 2+

20%

Al-Khmes wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Al Dahra Tripoli FC 1+ goals

75%

Al Dahra Tripoli FC 2+ goals

41%

Al Dahra Tripoli FC 3+ goals

17%

Al-Khmes 1+ goals

69%

Al-Khmes 2+ goals

33%

Al-Khmes 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Al Dahra Tripoli FC (draw refunded)

57%

Al-Khmes (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al Dahra Tripoli FC at home — creates 1.44, concedes 1.67 · 9 matches

Al-Khmes away — creates 0.69, concedes 1.36 · 55 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al Dahra Tripoli FC attack 1.44 + Al-Khmes defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.40

Al-Khmes attack 0.69 + Al Dahra Tripoli FC defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Al Dahra Tripoli FC scores more

42%

level

26%

Al-Khmes scores more

32%

Al Dahra Tripoli FC at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Al Dahra Tripoli FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff