Al Bukayriyah 5–0 Al-Kawkab: Result & Stats

Al Bukayriyah

FT

5 – 0

Al-Kawkab

9/25/2019

Division 1 · Round 6Al-Amal Club Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 60+ matches

Al Bukayriyah45%

×Draw28%

Al-Kawkab27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Al BukayriyahExpected goals in this matchAl-Kawkab

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.33

0.97

Al Bukayriyah

1.33

Al-Kawkab

0.97

Al Bukayriyah creates 37% more chances

Season form · 89 home / 60 away

1.33

creates per match

0.90

1.04

allows per match

1.32

creates per match

Al Bukayriyah

1.33

Al-Kawkab

0.90

allows per match

Al Bukayriyah

1.04

Al-Kawkab

1.32

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Al Bukayriyah+0.00on par

Al-Kawkab+0.00on par

Total goals

Under60
Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al Bukayriyah ↓

Al-Kawkab →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

40%60%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Al Bukayriyah or draw

73%

Al Bukayriyah or Al-Kawkab

72%

Draw or Al-Kawkab

55%

Winning margin

Al Bukayriyah wins by 2+

21%

Al-Kawkab wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Al Bukayriyah 1+ goals

74%

Al Bukayriyah 2+ goals

38%

Al Bukayriyah 3+ goals

15%

Al-Kawkab 1+ goals

62%

Al-Kawkab 2+ goals

25%

Al-Kawkab 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Al Bukayriyah (draw refunded)

62%

Al-Kawkab (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al Bukayriyah at home — creates 1.33, concedes 1.04 · 89 matches

Al-Kawkab away — creates 0.90, concedes 1.32 · 60 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al Bukayriyah attack 1.33 + Al-Kawkab defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.33

Al-Kawkab attack 0.90 + Al Bukayriyah defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Al Bukayriyah scores more

45%

level

28%

Al-Kawkab scores more

27%

Al Bukayriyah at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Al Bukayriyah will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff