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Al Bukayriyah vs Al Jandal — Division 1 2018

Al Bukayriyah
Al Bukayriyah
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Al Jandal
Al Jandal
2/24/2026Division 1Division 1 · Round 24Al Bukayriyah Club Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Al Bukayriyah49%
×Draw26%
Al Jandal25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Al Bukayriyah
1.52
Al Jandal
1.00

Al Bukayriyah creates 52% more chances

Season form · 89 home / 51 away

creates per match

Al Bukayriyah
1.33
Al Jandal
0.96

allows per match

Al Bukayriyah
1.04
Al Jandal
1.71

finishing

Al Bukayriyah+0.00on par
Al Jandal+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al Bukayriyah ↓

Al Jandal →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
46%54%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Al Bukayriyah or draw
75%
Al Bukayriyah or Al Jandal
74%
Draw or Al Jandal
51%

Winning margin

Al Bukayriyah wins by 2+
25%
Al Jandal wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Al Bukayriyah 1+ goals
78%
Al Bukayriyah 2+ goals
45%
Al Bukayriyah 3+ goals
20%
Al Jandal 1+ goals
63%
Al Jandal 2+ goals
26%
Al Jandal 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Al Bukayriyah (draw refunded)
66%
Al Jandal (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al Bukayriyah at home — creates 1.33, concedes 1.04 · 89 matches

Al Jandal away — creates 0.96, concedes 1.71 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al Bukayriyah attack 1.33 + Al Jandal defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.52

Al Jandal attack 0.96 + Al Bukayriyah defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Al Bukayriyah scores more
49%
level
26%
Al Jandal scores more
25%

Al Bukayriyah at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Al Bukayriyah will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Al Bukayriyah vs Al Jandal

Al Bukayriyah and Al Jandal drew 1-1 in Division 1 on February 24, 2026.

The match was played at Al Bukayriyah Club Stadium.