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Al Branes vs Khaleej Sart — Premier League 2019

Al Branes
Al Branes
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Khaleej Sart
Khaleej Sart
5/5/2025Premier LeaguePremier League · Relegation Round - 1

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Al Branes33%
×Draw29%
Khaleej Sart38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Al Branes
1.04
Khaleej Sart
1.13

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 10 home / 38 away

creates per match

Al Branes
0.50
Khaleej Sart
0.95

allows per match

Al Branes
1.30
Khaleej Sart
1.58

finishing

Al Branes+0.00on par
Khaleej Sart+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al Branes ↓

Khaleej Sart →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–113%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Al Branes or draw
62%
Al Branes or Khaleej Sart
71%
Draw or Khaleej Sart
67%

Winning margin

Al Branes wins by 2+
13%
Khaleej Sart wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Al Branes 1+ goals
65%
Al Branes 2+ goals
28%
Al Branes 3+ goals
9%
Khaleej Sart 1+ goals
68%
Khaleej Sart 2+ goals
31%
Khaleej Sart 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Al Branes (draw refunded)
47%
Khaleej Sart (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al Branes at home — creates 0.50, concedes 1.30 · 10 matches

Khaleej Sart away — creates 0.95, concedes 1.58 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al Branes attack 0.50 + Khaleej Sart defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.04

Khaleej Sart attack 0.95 + Al Branes defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Al Branes scores more
33%
level
29%
Khaleej Sart scores more
38%

Khaleej Sart at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Khaleej Sart will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Al Branes vs Khaleej Sart

Al Branes and Khaleej Sart drew 1-1 in Premier League on May 5, 2025.