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Al Branes vs Al Ta'awon — Premier League 2019

Al Branes
Al Branes
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Al Ta'awon
Al Ta'awon
2/23/2025Premier LeaguePremier League · East - 11

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Al Branes31%
×Draw29%
Al Ta'awon40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Al Branes
0.99
Al Ta'awon
1.16

Al Ta'awon creates 17% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 53 away

creates per match

Al Branes
0.50
Al Ta'awon
1.02

allows per match

Al Branes
1.30
Al Ta'awon
1.49

finishing

Al Branes+0.00on par
Al Ta'awon+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al Branes ↓

Al Ta'awon →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–114%
0–28%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Al Branes or draw
60%
Al Branes or Al Ta'awon
71%
Draw or Al Ta'awon
69%

Winning margin

Al Branes wins by 2+
11%
Al Ta'awon wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Al Branes 1+ goals
63%
Al Branes 2+ goals
26%
Al Branes 3+ goals
8%
Al Ta'awon 1+ goals
69%
Al Ta'awon 2+ goals
32%
Al Ta'awon 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Al Branes (draw refunded)
44%
Al Ta'awon (draw refunded)
56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al Branes at home — creates 0.50, concedes 1.30 · 10 matches

Al Ta'awon away — creates 1.02, concedes 1.49 · 53 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al Branes attack 0.50 + Al Ta'awon defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 0.99

Al Ta'awon attack 1.02 + Al Branes defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Al Branes scores more
31%
level
29%
Al Ta'awon scores more
40%

Al Ta'awon at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Al Ta'awon will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier League: Al Branes 0–1 Al Ta'awon

Al Ta'awon beat Al Branes 1-0 in Premier League on February 23, 2025.