Al Branes 2–0 Al Mahdia: Result & Stats

Al Branes

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Al Mahdia

12/19/2024

Premier League · East - 2

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Al Branes50%

×Draw27%

Al Mahdia23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Al BranesExpected goals in this matchAl Mahdia

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.40

0.86

Al Branes

1.40

Al Mahdia

0.86

Al Branes creates 63% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 7 away

0.50

creates per match

0.43

1.30

allows per match

2.29

creates per match

Al Branes

0.50

Al Mahdia

0.43

allows per match

Al Branes

1.30

Al Mahdia

2.29

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Al Branes+0.00on par

Al Mahdia+0.00on par

Total goals

Under61
Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No57
Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al Branes ↓

Al Mahdia →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–19%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–113%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

66%34%2.5

39%61%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Al Branes or draw

77%

Al Branes or Al Mahdia

73%

Draw or Al Mahdia

50%

Winning margin

Al Branes wins by 2+

24%

Al Mahdia wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Al Branes 1+ goals

75%

Al Branes 2+ goals

41%

Al Branes 3+ goals

17%

Al Mahdia 1+ goals

58%

Al Mahdia 2+ goals

21%

Al Mahdia 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Al Branes (draw refunded)

68%

Al Mahdia (draw refunded)

32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

31%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al Branes at home — creates 0.50, concedes 1.30 · 10 matches

Al Mahdia away — creates 0.43, concedes 2.29 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al Branes attack 0.50 + Al Mahdia defence 2.29 → ÷2 → 1.40

Al Mahdia attack 0.43 + Al Branes defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 0.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Al Branes scores more

50%

level

27%

Al Mahdia scores more

23%

Al Branes at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Al Branes will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff