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Al Branes vs Al Hilal — Premier League 2019

Al Branes
Al Branes
FT
0 – 4
HT: 0 – 2
Al Hilal
Al Hilal
2/18/2025Premier LeaguePremier League · East - 10

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Al Branes21%
×Draw29%
Al Hilal50%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Al Branes
0.70
Al Hilal
1.27

Al Hilal creates 81% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 70 away

creates per match

Al Branes
0.50
Al Hilal
1.24

allows per match

Al Branes
1.30
Al Hilal
0.90

finishing

Al Branes+0.00on par
Al Hilal+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Under
  • Under69
  • Over31

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

64%No
  • No64
  • Yes36

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al Branes ↓

Al Hilal →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–118%
0–211%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–03%
2–14%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (18%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
59%41%2.5
31%69%3.5
14%86%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Al Branes or draw
50%
Al Branes or Al Hilal
71%
Draw or Al Hilal
79%

Winning margin

Al Branes wins by 2+
6%
Al Hilal wins by 2+
23%

Team goals

Al Branes 1+ goals
50%
Al Branes 2+ goals
16%
Al Branes 3+ goals
3%
Al Hilal 1+ goals
72%
Al Hilal 2+ goals
36%
Al Hilal 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Al Branes (draw refunded)
29%
Al Hilal (draw refunded)
71%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
24%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al Branes at home — creates 0.50, concedes 1.30 · 10 matches

Al Hilal away — creates 1.24, concedes 0.90 · 70 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al Branes attack 0.50 + Al Hilal defence 0.90 → ÷2 → 0.70

Al Hilal attack 1.24 + Al Branes defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Al Branes scores more
21%
level
29%
Al Hilal scores more
50%

Al Hilal at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Al Hilal will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Al Branes vs Al Hilal

Al Hilal beat Al Branes 4-0 in Premier League on February 18, 2025.