Al Baten 1–4 Jeddah Club: Result & Stats

Al Baten

FT

1 – 4

HT: 0 – 0

Jeddah Club

10/21/2025

Division 1 · Round 5Al-Batin Club Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 70+ matches

Al Baten41%

×Draw26%

Jeddah Club32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Al BatenExpected goals in this matchJeddah Club

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.39

1.19

Al Baten

1.39

Jeddah Club

1.19

Al Baten creates 17% more chances

Season form · 70 home / 127 away

1.40

creates per match

1.19

1.20

allows per match

1.37

creates per match

Al Baten

1.40

Jeddah Club

1.19

allows per match

Al Baten

1.20

Jeddah Club

1.37

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Al Baten+0.00on par

Jeddah Club+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al Baten ↓

Jeddah Club →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Al Baten or draw

68%

Al Baten or Jeddah Club

74%

Draw or Jeddah Club

59%

Winning margin

Al Baten wins by 2+

19%

Jeddah Club wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Al Baten 1+ goals

75%

Al Baten 2+ goals

40%

Al Baten 3+ goals

16%

Jeddah Club 1+ goals

70%

Jeddah Club 2+ goals

33%

Jeddah Club 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Al Baten (draw refunded)

56%

Jeddah Club (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al Baten at home — creates 1.40, concedes 1.20 · 70 matches

Jeddah Club away — creates 1.19, concedes 1.37 · 127 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al Baten attack 1.40 + Jeddah Club defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.39

Jeddah Club attack 1.19 + Al Baten defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Al Baten scores more

41%

level

26%

Jeddah Club scores more

32%

Al Baten at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Al Baten will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff