Al Baten 3–4 Al-Nassr: Result & Stats | Pro League

Al Baten

FT

3 – 4

HT: 1 – 2

Al-Nassr

Zakaria Al-Sudani 81'

Fábio Abreu 79' (pen), 33' (pen)

G. Martínez 90+1' (pen)

Khalid Al Ghannam 68'

Abdulmajeed Al-Sulaiheem 24'

V. Aboubakar 4'

2/17/2022

Pro League · Round 21Al-Batin FC Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 60+ matches

Al Baten22%

×Draw23%

Al-Nassr55%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Al BatenExpected goals in this matchAl-Nassr

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.10

1.88

Al Baten

1.10

Al-Nassr

1.88

Al-Nassr creates 71% more chances

Season form · 60 home / 125 away

1.23

creates per match

2.18

1.58

allows per match

0.98

creates per match

Al Baten

1.23

Al-Nassr

2.18

allows per match

Al Baten

1.58

Al-Nassr

0.98

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Al Baten+0.00on par

Al-Nassr+0.00on par

Total goals

Over57
Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al Baten ↓

Al-Nassr →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–110%

0–29%

0–36%

0–43%

1

1–06%

1–111%

1–210%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–03%

2–16%

2–25%

2–33%

2–42%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–22%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

57%43%3.5

35%65%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Al Baten or draw

45%

Al Baten or Al-Nassr

77%

Draw or Al-Nassr

78%

Winning margin

Al Baten wins by 2+

8%

Al-Nassr wins by 2+

32%

Team goals

Al Baten 1+ goals

67%

Al Baten 2+ goals

30%

Al Baten 3+ goals

10%

Al-Nassr 1+ goals

85%

Al-Nassr 2+ goals

56%

Al-Nassr 3+ goals

29%

Draw no bet

Al Baten (draw refunded)

28%

Al-Nassr (draw refunded)

72%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al Baten at home — creates 1.23, concedes 1.58 · 60 matches

Al-Nassr away — creates 2.18, concedes 0.98 · 125 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al Baten attack 1.23 + Al-Nassr defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 1.10

Al-Nassr attack 2.18 + Al Baten defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Al Baten scores more

22%

level

23%

Al-Nassr scores more

55%

Al-Nassr at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Al-Nassr will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

9

Fábio Abreu

Al Baten · F

8.5

Match Events

4'

V. Aboubakar↳ Mansour Al Shammari

9'

Fabio AbreuPenalty cancelled

20'

Mohammed Naji

24'

Abdulmajeed Al-Sulaiheem↳ Sami Al-Najei

33'

Fábio AbreuPenalty

45'

Khalid Al-Ghannam

62'

Rakan Shamlan← Yousef Al-Shammari

64'

Sultan Al-Ghannam← Mansour Al Shammari

67'

Zakaria Al-Sudani

68'

Khalid Al Ghannam↳ Ali Lajami

70'

Hussain Ahmed Al Issa

73'

Abdul Majeed Obaid← Hussain Al Eisa

73'

Anselmo← Sami Al-Najei

73'

G. Martínez← J. Rodríguez

76'

Abdalmajeed ObaidPenalty awarded

78'

Abdullah Alkhaibari

79'

Fábio AbreuPenalty

81'

Zakaria Al-Sudani

84'

Zakaria Al-SudaniGoal confirmed

89'

Gonzalo MartinezPenalty awarded

90+1'

Abdulaziz Al-Aryani← Y. El Jebli

90+1'

G. MartínezPenalty

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

AlAl-Nassr

Overview

45%Possession55%

14Total Shots9

3Corners2

13Fouls11

Shots

14Total Shots9

7On Target4

3Off Target5

4Blocked0

10Inside Box8

4Outside Box1

Passing

45%Possession55%

347Total Passes432

294Accurate Passes372

85%Pass Accuracy86%

Goalkeeping

0Saves4

Discipline

13Fouls11

3Yellow Cards2