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Al Baten vs Al-Kawkab — Division 1 2018

Al Baten
Al Baten
FT
1 – 1
Al-Kawkab
Al-Kawkab
1/15/2020Division 1Division 1 · Round 20Al-Batin FC Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 60+ matches

Al Baten44%
×Draw27%
Al-Kawkab29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Al Baten
1.36
Al-Kawkab
1.05

Al Baten creates 30% more chances

Season form · 70 home / 60 away

creates per match

Al Baten
1.40
Al-Kawkab
0.90

allows per match

Al Baten
1.20
Al-Kawkab
1.32

finishing

Al Baten+0.00on par
Al-Kawkab+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al Baten ↓

Al-Kawkab →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Al Baten or draw
71%
Al Baten or Al-Kawkab
73%
Draw or Al-Kawkab
56%

Winning margin

Al Baten wins by 2+
21%
Al-Kawkab wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Al Baten 1+ goals
74%
Al Baten 2+ goals
39%
Al Baten 3+ goals
16%
Al-Kawkab 1+ goals
65%
Al-Kawkab 2+ goals
28%
Al-Kawkab 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Al Baten (draw refunded)
60%
Al-Kawkab (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al Baten at home — creates 1.40, concedes 1.20 · 70 matches

Al-Kawkab away — creates 0.90, concedes 1.32 · 60 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al Baten attack 1.40 + Al-Kawkab defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.36

Al-Kawkab attack 0.90 + Al Baten defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Al Baten scores more
44%
level
27%
Al-Kawkab scores more
29%

Al Baten at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Al Baten will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Division 1: Al Baten 1–1 Al-Kawkab

Al Baten and Al-Kawkab drew 1-1 in Division 1 on January 15, 2020.

The match was played at Al-Batin FC Stadium in Hafar Al-Batin.