Al Baten 0–2 Al-Fateh: Result & Stats | Pro League

Al Baten

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 2

Al-Fateh

G. Wikheim 34', 21'

9/12/2021

Pro League · Round 4Al-Batin FC Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 61+ matches

Al Baten38%

×Draw25%

Al-Fateh37%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Al BatenExpected goals in this matchAl-Fateh

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.46

1.45

Al Baten

1.46

Al-Fateh

1.45

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 61 home / 126 away

1.23

creates per match

1.33

1.56

allows per match

1.68

creates per match

Al Baten

1.23

Al-Fateh

1.33

allows per match

Al Baten

1.56

Al-Fateh

1.68

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Al Baten+0.00on par

Al-Fateh+0.00on par

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al Baten ↓

Al-Fateh →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–18%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

33%67%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Al Baten or draw

63%

Al Baten or Al-Fateh

75%

Draw or Al-Fateh

62%

Winning margin

Al Baten wins by 2+

18%

Al-Fateh wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

Al Baten 1+ goals

77%

Al Baten 2+ goals

43%

Al Baten 3+ goals

18%

Al-Fateh 1+ goals

77%

Al-Fateh 2+ goals

42%

Al-Fateh 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

Al Baten (draw refunded)

50%

Al-Fateh (draw refunded)

50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al Baten at home — creates 1.23, concedes 1.56 · 61 matches

Al-Fateh away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.68 · 126 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al Baten attack 1.23 + Al-Fateh defence 1.68 → ÷2 → 1.46

Al-Fateh attack 1.33 + Al Baten defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.45

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Al Baten scores more

38%

level

25%

Al-Fateh scores more

37%

Al Baten at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Al Baten will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

88

G. Wikheim

Al-Fateh · M

8.5

Match Events

18'

Afriyie Acquah

21'

G. Wikheim↳ Ali Al Zaqan

30'

Mohammed Naji

31'

Mohammed Al-Fuhaid

34'

G. Wikheim↳ Firas Al-Buraikan

45+3'

Mohammed Al Qarni

46'

Abdulaziz Damdam← Mohammed Al Qarni

46'

Zakaria Al-Sudani← A. Acquah

46'

Saqr Al-Enazi← Mohammed Naji

56'

Massod Al-Rabie

58'

Rakan Al-Shamlan← Y. El Jebli

65'

I. Santini← Firas Al-Buraikan

65'

Mohammed Al Saeed← G. Wikheim

67'

Yousef Al-Shammari← Hussain Al-Eisa

77'

Tawfiq Buhumaid

90+1'

Fahad Al Harbi← Majed Kanabah

90'

Ahmad El Geaidy← Nawaf Boushal

90'

Saleh Al Nashmi← Ali Al Zaqan

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

AlAl-Fateh

Overview

66%Possession34%

6Total Shots10

4Corners1

18Fouls15

Shots

6Total Shots10

2On Target3

1Off Target4

3Blocked3

5Inside Box5

1Outside Box5

Passing

66%Possession34%

464Total Passes235

391Accurate Passes169

84%Pass Accuracy72%

Goalkeeping

1Saves2

Discipline

18Fouls15

4Yellow Cards2

1Offsides0