Al Baten 3–1 Al-Faisaly FC: Result & Stats

Al Baten

FT

3 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Al-Faisaly FC

12/18/2024

Division 1 · Round 14Al-Batin FC Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 68+ matches

Al Baten36%

×Draw26%

Al-Faisaly FC38%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Al BatenExpected goals in this matchAl-Faisaly FC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.29

1.33

Al Baten

1.29

Al-Faisaly FC

1.33

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 70 home / 68 away

1.40

creates per match

1.47

1.20

allows per match

1.18

creates per match

Al Baten

1.40

Al-Faisaly FC

1.47

allows per match

Al Baten

1.20

Al-Faisaly FC

1.18

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Al Baten+0.00on par

Al-Faisaly FC+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al Baten ↓

Al-Faisaly FC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–110%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–113%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Al Baten or draw

62%

Al Baten or Al-Faisaly FC

74%

Draw or Al-Faisaly FC

64%

Winning margin

Al Baten wins by 2+

16%

Al-Faisaly FC wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Al Baten 1+ goals

72%

Al Baten 2+ goals

37%

Al Baten 3+ goals

14%

Al-Faisaly FC 1+ goals

74%

Al-Faisaly FC 2+ goals

38%

Al-Faisaly FC 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Al Baten (draw refunded)

49%

Al-Faisaly FC (draw refunded)

51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al Baten at home — creates 1.40, concedes 1.20 · 70 matches

Al-Faisaly FC away — creates 1.47, concedes 1.18 · 68 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al Baten attack 1.40 + Al-Faisaly FC defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.29

Al-Faisaly FC attack 1.47 + Al Baten defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Al Baten scores more

36%

level

26%

Al-Faisaly FC scores more

38%

Al-Faisaly FC at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Al-Faisaly FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff