Al Baten 0–1 Al-Ahli Jeddah: Result & Stats

Al Baten

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Al-Ahli Jeddah

Salman Al Moasher 18'

10/18/2020

Pro League · Round 1Al-Batin FC Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 61+ matches

Al Baten32%

×Draw25%

Al-Ahli Jeddah44%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Al BatenExpected goals in this matchAl-Ahli Jeddah

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.32

1.59

Al Baten

1.32

Al-Ahli Jeddah

1.59

Al-Ahli Jeddah creates 20% more chances

Season form · 61 home / 109 away

1.23

creates per match

1.63

1.56

allows per match

1.41

creates per match

Al Baten

1.23

Al-Ahli Jeddah

1.63

allows per match

Al Baten

1.56

Al-Ahli Jeddah

1.41

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Al Baten+0.00on par

Al-Ahli Jeddah+0.00on par

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al Baten ↓

Al-Ahli Jeddah →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–19%

0–27%

0–34%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–23%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

33%67%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Al Baten or draw

56%

Al Baten or Al-Ahli Jeddah

75%

Draw or Al-Ahli Jeddah

68%

Winning margin

Al Baten wins by 2+

14%

Al-Ahli Jeddah wins by 2+

22%

Team goals

Al Baten 1+ goals

73%

Al Baten 2+ goals

38%

Al Baten 3+ goals

15%

Al-Ahli Jeddah 1+ goals

80%

Al-Ahli Jeddah 2+ goals

47%

Al-Ahli Jeddah 3+ goals

21%

Draw no bet

Al Baten (draw refunded)

42%

Al-Ahli Jeddah (draw refunded)

58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al Baten at home — creates 1.23, concedes 1.56 · 61 matches

Al-Ahli Jeddah away — creates 1.63, concedes 1.41 · 109 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al Baten attack 1.23 + Al-Ahli Jeddah defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.32

Al-Ahli Jeddah attack 1.63 + Al Baten defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.59

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Al Baten scores more

32%

level

25%

Al-Ahli Jeddah scores more

44%

Al-Ahli Jeddah at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Al-Ahli Jeddah will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

1

Yasser Al Mosailem

Al-Ahli Jeddah · G

7.9

Match Events

18'

Salman Al Moasher↳ Mohammed Al-Khabrani

24'

36'

44'

45'

46'

Fahad Al-Shammeri← Yousef Al Shammari

60'

L. Fejsa← Ali Hassan Al Asmari

61'

Hassan Algeed← Sultan Madash

65'

Abdulbasit Hindi← Mohammed Al-Khabrani

67'

Saleh Al Abbas← Daifallah Al Qarni

80'

Hussain Al Mogahwi← Salman Al Moasher

81'

Abdulrahman Ghareeb← M. Marin

86'

Abdulaziz Damdam← Y. El Jebli

90'

Fahad Al-Shammeri

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

AlAl-Ahli

Overview

56%Possession44%

18Total Shots15

6Corners3

16Fouls18

Shots

18Total Shots15

4On Target6

8Off Target6

6Blocked3

6Inside Box11

12Outside Box4

Passing

56%Possession44%

451Total Passes357

371Accurate Passes269

82%Pass Accuracy75%

Goalkeeping

5Saves4

Discipline

16Fouls18

2Yellow Cards3

3Offsides1