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Al Baten vs Abha — Division 1 2018

Al Baten
Al Baten
FT
3 – 2
HT: 1 – 0
Abha
Abha
10/6/2024Division 1Division 1 · Round 6Al-Batin FC Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 36+ matches

Al Baten38%
×Draw26%
Abha36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Al Baten
1.40
Abha
1.35

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 70 home / 36 away

creates per match

Al Baten
1.40
Abha
1.50

allows per match

Al Baten
1.20
Abha
1.39

finishing

Al Baten+0.00on par
Abha+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al Baten ↓

Abha →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–19%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Al Baten or draw
64%
Al Baten or Abha
74%
Draw or Abha
62%

Winning margin

Al Baten wins by 2+
18%
Abha wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Al Baten 1+ goals
75%
Al Baten 2+ goals
41%
Al Baten 3+ goals
17%
Abha 1+ goals
74%
Abha 2+ goals
39%
Abha 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Al Baten (draw refunded)
52%
Abha (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al Baten at home — creates 1.40, concedes 1.20 · 70 matches

Abha away — creates 1.50, concedes 1.39 · 36 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al Baten attack 1.40 + Abha defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.40

Abha attack 1.50 + Al Baten defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Al Baten scores more
38%
level
26%
Abha scores more
36%

Al Baten at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Al Baten will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Al Baten vs Abha

Al Baten beat Abha 3-2 in Division 1 on October 6, 2024.

The match was played at Al-Batin FC Stadium in Hafar Al-Batin.