Al Bataeh 3–1 Dubai City: Result & Stats

Al Bataeh

FT

3 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Dubai City

3/12/2022

Division 1 · Round 23Al-Bataeh Club Ground

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

Al Bataeh66%

×Draw20%

Dubai City14%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Al BataehExpected goals in this matchDubai City

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.11

0.86

Al Bataeh

2.11

Dubai City

0.86

Al Bataeh creates 145% more chances

Season form · 32 home / 60 away

1.94

creates per match

0.98

0.75

allows per match

2.28

creates per match

Al Bataeh

1.94

Dubai City

0.98

allows per match

Al Bataeh

0.75

Dubai City

2.28

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Al Bataeh+0.00on par

Dubai City+0.00on par

Total goals

Over57
Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al Bataeh ↓

Dubai City →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–14%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–19%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–17%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–14%

4–22%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

57%43%3.5

34%66%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Al Bataeh or draw

86%

Al Bataeh or Dubai City

80%

Draw or Dubai City

34%

Winning margin

Al Bataeh wins by 2+

42%

Dubai City wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

Al Bataeh 1+ goals

88%

Al Bataeh 2+ goals

62%

Al Bataeh 3+ goals

35%

Dubai City 1+ goals

58%

Dubai City 2+ goals

21%

Dubai City 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Al Bataeh (draw refunded)

82%

Dubai City (draw refunded)

18%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al Bataeh at home — creates 1.94, concedes 0.75 · 32 matches

Dubai City away — creates 0.98, concedes 2.28 · 60 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al Bataeh attack 1.94 + Dubai City defence 2.28 → ÷2 → 2.11

Dubai City attack 0.98 + Al Bataeh defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 0.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 66%?"

Al Bataeh scores more

66%

level

20%

Dubai City scores more

14%

Al Bataeh at 66% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 66% does not mean "Al Bataeh will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff