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Al Bashair vs Sohar — Professional League 2019

Al Bashair
Al Bashair
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Sohar
Sohar
10/3/2022Professional LeagueProfessional League · Round 5Nizwa Sports Complex

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Al Bashair28%
×Draw27%
Sohar45%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Al Bashair
1.03
Sohar
1.40

Sohar creates 36% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 78 away

creates per match

Al Bashair
0.69
Sohar
1.10

allows per match

Al Bashair
1.69
Sohar
1.38

finishing

Al Bashair+0.00on par
Sohar+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al Bashair ↓

Sohar →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–112%
0–29%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–113%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Al Bashair or draw
55%
Al Bashair or Sohar
73%
Draw or Sohar
72%

Winning margin

Al Bashair wins by 2+
10%
Sohar wins by 2+
22%

Team goals

Al Bashair 1+ goals
64%
Al Bashair 2+ goals
28%
Al Bashair 3+ goals
9%
Sohar 1+ goals
75%
Sohar 2+ goals
41%
Sohar 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Al Bashair (draw refunded)
38%
Sohar (draw refunded)
62%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al Bashair at home — creates 0.69, concedes 1.69 · 13 matches

Sohar away — creates 1.10, concedes 1.38 · 78 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al Bashair attack 0.69 + Sohar defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.03

Sohar attack 1.10 + Al Bashair defence 1.69 → ÷2 → 1.40

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Al Bashair scores more
28%
level
27%
Sohar scores more
45%

Sohar at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Sohar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Al Bashair vs Sohar

Sohar beat Al Bashair 2-0 in Professional League on October 3, 2022.

The match was played at Nizwa Sports Complex in Nizwa.