Al Bashaer Club 1–2 Olympic Azzaweya

Al Bashaer Club

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 2

Olympic Azzaweya

1/3/2025

Premier League · West - 5

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 21+ matches

Al Bashaer Club37%

×Draw29%

Olympic Azzaweya34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Al Bashaer ClubExpected goals in this matchOlympic Azzaweya

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.14

1.08

Al Bashaer Club

1.14

Olympic Azzaweya

1.08

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 21 home / 65 away

1.10

creates per match

1.03

1.14

allows per match

1.17

creates per match

Al Bashaer Club

1.10

Olympic Azzaweya

1.03

allows per match

Al Bashaer Club

1.14

Olympic Azzaweya

1.17

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Al Bashaer Club+0.00on par

Olympic Azzaweya+0.00on par

Total goals

Under62
Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al Bashaer Club ↓

Olympic Azzaweya →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–112%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

65%35%2.5

38%62%3.5

18%82%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Al Bashaer Club or draw

66%

Al Bashaer Club or Olympic Azzaweya

71%

Draw or Olympic Azzaweya

63%

Winning margin

Al Bashaer Club wins by 2+

15%

Olympic Azzaweya wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Al Bashaer Club 1+ goals

68%

Al Bashaer Club 2+ goals

32%

Al Bashaer Club 3+ goals

11%

Olympic Azzaweya 1+ goals

66%

Olympic Azzaweya 2+ goals

29%

Olympic Azzaweya 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Al Bashaer Club (draw refunded)

52%

Olympic Azzaweya (draw refunded)

48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al Bashaer Club at home — creates 1.10, concedes 1.14 · 21 matches

Olympic Azzaweya away — creates 1.03, concedes 1.17 · 65 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al Bashaer Club attack 1.10 + Olympic Azzaweya defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.14

Olympic Azzaweya attack 1.03 + Al Bashaer Club defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Al Bashaer Club scores more

37%

level

29%

Olympic Azzaweya scores more

34%

Al Bashaer Club at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Al Bashaer Club will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff