Al Bashaer Club 1–1 Al Malaab El Libby

Al Bashaer Club

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Al Malaab El Libby

12/21/2023

Premier League · Round 8

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 21+ matches

Al Bashaer Club38%

×Draw30%

Al Malaab El Libby32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Al Bashaer ClubExpected goals in this matchAl Malaab El Libby

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.10

0.99

Al Bashaer Club

1.10

Al Malaab El Libby

0.99

Al Bashaer Club creates 11% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 27 away

1.10

creates per match

0.85

1.14

allows per match

1.11

creates per match

Al Bashaer Club

1.10

Al Malaab El Libby

0.85

allows per match

Al Bashaer Club

1.14

Al Malaab El Libby

1.11

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Al Bashaer Club+0.00on par

Al Malaab El Libby+0.00on par

Total goals

Under65
Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No58
Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al Bashaer Club ↓

Al Malaab El Libby →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–112%

0–26%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–17%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

62%38%2.5

35%65%3.5

16%84%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Al Bashaer Club or draw

68%

Al Bashaer Club or Al Malaab El Libby

70%

Draw or Al Malaab El Libby

62%

Winning margin

Al Bashaer Club wins by 2+

15%

Al Malaab El Libby wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Al Bashaer Club 1+ goals

67%

Al Bashaer Club 2+ goals

30%

Al Bashaer Club 3+ goals

10%

Al Malaab El Libby 1+ goals

63%

Al Malaab El Libby 2+ goals

26%

Al Malaab El Libby 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Al Bashaer Club (draw refunded)

54%

Al Malaab El Libby (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

28%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al Bashaer Club at home — creates 1.10, concedes 1.14 · 21 matches

Al Malaab El Libby away — creates 0.85, concedes 1.11 · 27 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al Bashaer Club attack 1.10 + Al Malaab El Libby defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.10

Al Malaab El Libby attack 0.85 + Al Bashaer Club defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 0.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Al Bashaer Club scores more

38%

level

30%

Al Malaab El Libby scores more

32%

Al Bashaer Club at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Al Bashaer Club will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff