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Al Arabi vs Shabab Al Khaleel — AFC Cup 2018

Al Arabi
Al Arabi
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Shabab Al Khaleel
Shabab Al Khaleel
5/21/2022AFC CupAFC Cup · Group Stage - 2Al Kuwait Sports Club Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Al Arabi46%
×Draw29%
Shabab Al Khaleel25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Al Arabi
1.25
Shabab Al Khaleel
0.83

Al Arabi creates 51% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 3 away

creates per match

Al Arabi
0.50
Shabab Al Khaleel
0.67

allows per match

Al Arabi
1.00
Shabab Al Khaleel
2.00

finishing

Al Arabi+0.00on par
Shabab Al Khaleel+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Under
  • Under66
  • Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

60%No
  • No60
  • Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al Arabi ↓

Shabab Al Khaleel →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–110%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
62%38%2.5
34%66%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Al Arabi or draw
75%
Al Arabi or Shabab Al Khaleel
71%
Draw or Shabab Al Khaleel
54%

Winning margin

Al Arabi wins by 2+
21%
Shabab Al Khaleel wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Al Arabi 1+ goals
71%
Al Arabi 2+ goals
36%
Al Arabi 3+ goals
13%
Shabab Al Khaleel 1+ goals
56%
Shabab Al Khaleel 2+ goals
20%
Shabab Al Khaleel 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Al Arabi (draw refunded)
65%
Shabab Al Khaleel (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al Arabi at home — creates 0.50, concedes 1.00 · 4 matches

Shabab Al Khaleel away — creates 0.67, concedes 2.00 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al Arabi attack 0.50 + Shabab Al Khaleel defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.25

Shabab Al Khaleel attack 0.67 + Al Arabi defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Al Arabi scores more
46%
level
29%
Shabab Al Khaleel scores more
25%

Al Arabi at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Al Arabi will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Al Arabi vs Shabab Al Khaleel

Al Arabi beat Shabab Al Khaleel 1-0 in AFC Cup on May 21, 2022.

The match was played at Al Kuwait Sports Club Stadium in Kuwait City.