Al Arabi 3–1 Gulf United: Result & Stats

Al Arabi

FT

3 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Gulf United

M. Diop 90+4', 6'

R. Eisa 87'

A. Mezher 40'

1/11/2025

Division 1 · Round 12Al Arabi Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 43+ matches

Al Arabi52%

×Draw24%

Gulf United25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Al ArabiExpected goals in this matchGulf United

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.76

1.14

Al Arabi

1.76

Gulf United

1.14

Al Arabi creates 54% more chances

Season form · 99 home / 43 away

1.65

creates per match

0.93

1.35

allows per match

1.88

creates per match

Al Arabi

1.65

Gulf United

0.93

allows per match

Al Arabi

1.35

Gulf United

1.88

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Al Arabi+0.00on par

Gulf United+0.00on par

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al Arabi ↓

Gulf United →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–16%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

55%45%3.5

33%67%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Al Arabi or draw

75%

Al Arabi or Gulf United

76%

Draw or Gulf United

48%

Winning margin

Al Arabi wins by 2+

28%

Gulf United wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Al Arabi 1+ goals

83%

Al Arabi 2+ goals

52%

Al Arabi 3+ goals

26%

Gulf United 1+ goals

68%

Gulf United 2+ goals

32%

Gulf United 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Al Arabi (draw refunded)

68%

Gulf United (draw refunded)

32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al Arabi at home — creates 1.65, concedes 1.35 · 99 matches

Gulf United away — creates 0.93, concedes 1.88 · 43 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al Arabi attack 1.65 + Gulf United defence 1.88 → ÷2 → 1.76

Gulf United attack 0.93 + Al Arabi defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Al Arabi scores more

52%

level

24%

Gulf United scores more

25%

Al Arabi at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Al Arabi will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

6'

M. Diop

40'

A. Mezher

87'

R. Eisa

90+4'

M. Diop

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff