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Al Arabi vs Gulf Heroes — Presidents Cup 2019

Al Arabi
Al Arabi
AET
2 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Gulf Heroes
Gulf Heroes
11/12/2023Presidents CupPresidents Cup · 3rd Preliminary RoundAl Arabi Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Al Arabi26%
×Draw19%
Gulf Heroes55%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Al Arabi
1.67
Gulf Heroes
2.45

Gulf Heroes creates 47% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 3 away

creates per match

Al Arabi
2.00
Gulf Heroes
3.33

allows per match

Al Arabi
1.57
Gulf Heroes
1.33

finishing

Al Arabi+0.00on par
Gulf Heroes+0.00on par

Total goals

78%Over
  • Over78
  • Under22

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

74%Yes
  • Yes74
  • No26

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al Arabi ↓

Gulf Heroes →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–25%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–03%
1–17%
1–28%
1–37%
1–44%
2
2–02%
2–16%
2–27%
2–36%
2–43%
3
3–01%
3–13%
3–24%
3–33%
3–42%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (8%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
92%8%2.5
78%22%3.5
58%42%4.5
39%61%

Double chance

Al Arabi or draw
45%
Al Arabi or Gulf Heroes
81%
Draw or Gulf Heroes
74%

Winning margin

Al Arabi wins by 2+
12%
Gulf Heroes wins by 2+
34%

Team goals

Al Arabi 1+ goals
81%
Al Arabi 2+ goals
50%
Al Arabi 3+ goals
23%
Gulf Heroes 1+ goals
91%
Gulf Heroes 2+ goals
70%
Gulf Heroes 3+ goals
44%

Draw no bet

Al Arabi (draw refunded)
32%
Gulf Heroes (draw refunded)
68%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
67%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al Arabi at home — creates 2.00, concedes 1.57 · 7 matches

Gulf Heroes away — creates 3.33, concedes 1.33 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al Arabi attack 2.00 + Gulf Heroes defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.67

Gulf Heroes attack 3.33 + Al Arabi defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 2.45

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Al Arabi scores more
26%
level
19%
Gulf Heroes scores more
55%

Gulf Heroes at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Gulf Heroes will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Presidents Cup: Al Arabi 2–2 Gulf Heroes

Al Arabi and Gulf Heroes drew 2-2 in Presidents Cup on November 12, 2023.

The match was played at Al Arabi Stadium in Umm al-Quwain.