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Al Arabi vs Dibba Al Hisn — Division 1 2018

Al Arabi
Al Arabi
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 0
Dibba Al Hisn
Dibba Al Hisn
3/17/2024Division 1Division 1 · Round 24Al Arabi Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 86+ matches

Al Arabi33%
×Draw24%
Dibba Al Hisn42%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Al Arabi
1.39
Dibba Al Hisn
1.59

Dibba Al Hisn creates 14% more chances

Season form · 99 home / 86 away

creates per match

Al Arabi
1.65
Dibba Al Hisn
1.83

allows per match

Al Arabi
1.35
Dibba Al Hisn
1.12

finishing

Al Arabi+0.00on par
Dibba Al Hisn+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al Arabi ↓

Dibba Al Hisn →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Al Arabi or draw
58%
Al Arabi or Dibba Al Hisn
76%
Draw or Dibba Al Hisn
67%

Winning margin

Al Arabi wins by 2+
15%
Dibba Al Hisn wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Al Arabi 1+ goals
75%
Al Arabi 2+ goals
40%
Al Arabi 3+ goals
16%
Dibba Al Hisn 1+ goals
80%
Dibba Al Hisn 2+ goals
47%
Dibba Al Hisn 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Al Arabi (draw refunded)
44%
Dibba Al Hisn (draw refunded)
56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al Arabi at home — creates 1.65, concedes 1.35 · 99 matches

Dibba Al Hisn away — creates 1.83, concedes 1.12 · 86 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al Arabi attack 1.65 + Dibba Al Hisn defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.39

Dibba Al Hisn attack 1.83 + Al Arabi defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.59

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Al Arabi scores more
33%
level
24%
Dibba Al Hisn scores more
42%

Dibba Al Hisn at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Dibba Al Hisn will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Division 1: Al Arabi 1–2 Dibba Al Hisn

Dibba Al Hisn beat Al Arabi 2-1 in Division 1 on March 17, 2024.

The match was played at Al Arabi Stadium in Umm al-Quwain.