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Al Arabi vs Al Urooba — Division 1 2018

Al Arabi
Al Arabi
FT
2 – 2
HT: 2 – 2
Al Urooba
Al Urooba
5/30/2024Division 1Division 1 · Round 34Al Arabi Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 72+ matches

Al Arabi34%
×Draw25%
Al Urooba40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Al Arabi
1.32
Al Urooba
1.45

Al Urooba creates 10% more chances

Season form · 99 home / 72 away

creates per match

Al Arabi
1.65
Al Urooba
1.54

allows per match

Al Arabi
1.35
Al Urooba
0.99

finishing

Al Arabi+0.00on par
Al Urooba+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al Arabi ↓

Al Urooba →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–19%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Al Arabi or draw
60%
Al Arabi or Al Urooba
75%
Draw or Al Urooba
66%

Winning margin

Al Arabi wins by 2+
15%
Al Urooba wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Al Arabi 1+ goals
73%
Al Arabi 2+ goals
38%
Al Arabi 3+ goals
15%
Al Urooba 1+ goals
77%
Al Urooba 2+ goals
42%
Al Urooba 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Al Arabi (draw refunded)
46%
Al Urooba (draw refunded)
54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al Arabi at home — creates 1.65, concedes 1.35 · 99 matches

Al Urooba away — creates 1.54, concedes 0.99 · 72 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al Arabi attack 1.65 + Al Urooba defence 0.99 → ÷2 → 1.32

Al Urooba attack 1.54 + Al Arabi defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.45

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Al Arabi scores more
34%
level
25%
Al Urooba scores more
40%

Al Urooba at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Al Urooba will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Division 1: Al Arabi 2–2 Al Urooba

Al Arabi and Al Urooba drew 2-2 in Division 1 on May 30, 2024.

The match was played at Al Arabi Stadium in Umm al-Quwain.