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Al Arabi vs Al Fahaheel — Crown Prince Cup 2020

Al Arabi
Al Arabiadvanced
FT
2 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Al Fahaheel
Al Fahaheel
1/19/2026Crown Prince CupCrown Prince Cup · Semi-finalsSabah Al Salem Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Al Arabi76%
×Draw18%
Al Fahaheel7%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Al Arabi
2.04
Al Fahaheel
0.42

Al Arabi creates 386% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 4 away

creates per match

Al Arabi
2.08
Al Fahaheel
0.50

allows per match

Al Arabi
0.33
Al Fahaheel
2.00

finishing

Al Arabi+0.00on par
Al Fahaheel+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

70%No
  • No70
  • Yes30

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al Arabi ↓

Al Fahaheel →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–14%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–018%
1–17%
1–22%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–018%
2–18%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–012%
3–15%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–06%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Al Arabi or draw
93%
Al Arabi or Al Fahaheel
82%
Draw or Al Fahaheel
24%

Winning margin

Al Arabi wins by 2+
50%
Al Fahaheel wins by 2+
1%

Team goals

Al Arabi 1+ goals
87%
Al Arabi 2+ goals
60%
Al Arabi 3+ goals
33%
Al Fahaheel 1+ goals
34%
Al Fahaheel 2+ goals
7%
Al Fahaheel 3+ goals
1%

Draw no bet

Al Arabi (draw refunded)
92%
Al Fahaheel (draw refunded)
8%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
22%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al Arabi at home — creates 2.08, concedes 0.33 · 12 matches

Al Fahaheel away — creates 0.50, concedes 2.00 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al Arabi attack 2.08 + Al Fahaheel defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 2.04

Al Fahaheel attack 0.50 + Al Arabi defence 0.33 → ÷2 → 0.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 76%?"

Al Arabi scores more
76%
level
18%
Al Fahaheel scores more
7%

Al Arabi at 76% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 76% does not mean "Al Arabi will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Crown Prince Cup: Al Arabi 2–0 Al Fahaheel

Al Arabi beat Al Fahaheel 2-0 in Crown Prince Cup on January 19, 2026.

The match was played at Sabah Al Salem Stadium in Kuwait.