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Al Arabi SC vs Al Baten — Division 1 2018

Al Arabi SC
Al Arabi SC
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Al Baten
Al Baten
12/19/2025Division 1Division 1 · Round 12Department of Education Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 68+ matches

Al Arabi SC44%
×Draw25%
Al Baten31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Al Arabi SC
1.54
Al Baten
1.27

Al Arabi SC creates 21% more chances

Season form · 68 home / 70 away

creates per match

Al Arabi SC
1.51
Al Baten
1.11

allows per match

Al Arabi SC
1.44
Al Baten
1.57

finishing

Al Arabi SC+0.00on par
Al Baten+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al Arabi SC ↓

Al Baten →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Al Arabi SC or draw
69%
Al Arabi SC or Al Baten
75%
Draw or Al Baten
56%

Winning margin

Al Arabi SC wins by 2+
22%
Al Baten wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Al Arabi SC 1+ goals
79%
Al Arabi SC 2+ goals
45%
Al Arabi SC 3+ goals
20%
Al Baten 1+ goals
72%
Al Baten 2+ goals
36%
Al Baten 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Al Arabi SC (draw refunded)
58%
Al Baten (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al Arabi SC at home — creates 1.51, concedes 1.44 · 68 matches

Al Baten away — creates 1.11, concedes 1.57 · 70 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al Arabi SC attack 1.51 + Al Baten defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.54

Al Baten attack 1.11 + Al Arabi SC defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Al Arabi SC scores more
44%
level
25%
Al Baten scores more
31%

Al Arabi SC at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Al Arabi SC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Al Arabi SC vs Al Baten

Al Arabi SC beat Al Baten 1-0 in Division 1 on December 19, 2025.

The match was played at Department of Education Stadium in Unaizah.