Al Arabi SC 3–1 Al-Ain: Result & Stats | Division 1

Al Arabi SC

FT

3 – 1

HT: 2 – 1

Al-Ain

5/17/2023

Division 1 · Round 32Department of Education Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 68+ matches

Al Arabi SC42%

×Draw26%

Al-Ain31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Al Arabi SCExpected goals in this matchAl-Ain

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.41

1.18

Al Arabi SC

1.41

Al-Ain

1.18

Al Arabi SC creates 19% more chances

Season form · 68 home / 89 away

1.51

creates per match

0.92

1.44

allows per match

1.31

creates per match

Al Arabi SC

1.51

Al-Ain

0.92

allows per match

Al Arabi SC

1.44

Al-Ain

1.31

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Al Arabi SC+0.00on par

Al-Ain+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al Arabi SC ↓

Al-Ain →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Al Arabi SC or draw

69%

Al Arabi SC or Al-Ain

74%

Draw or Al-Ain

58%

Winning margin

Al Arabi SC wins by 2+

20%

Al-Ain wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Al Arabi SC 1+ goals

76%

Al Arabi SC 2+ goals

41%

Al Arabi SC 3+ goals

17%

Al-Ain 1+ goals

69%

Al-Ain 2+ goals

33%

Al-Ain 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Al Arabi SC (draw refunded)

57%

Al-Ain (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al Arabi SC at home — creates 1.51, concedes 1.44 · 68 matches

Al-Ain away — creates 0.92, concedes 1.31 · 89 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al Arabi SC attack 1.51 + Al-Ain defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.41

Al-Ain attack 0.92 + Al Arabi SC defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Al Arabi SC scores more

42%

level

26%

Al-Ain scores more

31%

Al Arabi SC at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Al Arabi SC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff