Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Al-Anwar vs Ngom Ajdabiya — Premier League 2019

Al-Anwar
Al-Anwar
FT
3 – 3
Ngom Ajdabiya
Ngom Ajdabiya
7/27/2021Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 22

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Al-Anwar46%
×Draw25%
Ngom Ajdabiya29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Al-Anwar
1.56
Ngom Ajdabiya
1.18

Al-Anwar creates 32% more chances

Season form · 36 home / 11 away

creates per match

Al-Anwar
1.31
Ngom Ajdabiya
0.55

allows per match

Al-Anwar
1.81
Ngom Ajdabiya
1.82

finishing

Al-Anwar+0.00on par
Ngom Ajdabiya+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al-Anwar ↓

Ngom Ajdabiya →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Al-Anwar or draw
71%
Al-Anwar or Ngom Ajdabiya
75%
Draw or Ngom Ajdabiya
54%

Winning margin

Al-Anwar wins by 2+
23%
Ngom Ajdabiya wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Al-Anwar 1+ goals
79%
Al-Anwar 2+ goals
46%
Al-Anwar 3+ goals
21%
Ngom Ajdabiya 1+ goals
69%
Ngom Ajdabiya 2+ goals
33%
Ngom Ajdabiya 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Al-Anwar (draw refunded)
62%
Ngom Ajdabiya (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al-Anwar at home — creates 1.31, concedes 1.81 · 36 matches

Ngom Ajdabiya away — creates 0.55, concedes 1.82 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al-Anwar attack 1.31 + Ngom Ajdabiya defence 1.82 → ÷2 → 1.56

Ngom Ajdabiya attack 0.55 + Al-Anwar defence 1.81 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Al-Anwar scores more
46%
level
25%
Ngom Ajdabiya scores more
29%

Al-Anwar at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Al-Anwar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier League: Al-Anwar 3–3 Ngom Ajdabiya

Al-Anwar and Ngom Ajdabiya drew 3-3 in Premier League on July 27, 2021.